AAMC Report Shows Continued Physician Shortage, Opportunity for PAs

The AAMC has published The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections from 2013 to 2025:

The demand model simulated the implications of changing demographics as the population grows and ages, along with projected changes in disease prevalence and other health risk factors among the population if health care use and delivery patterns remained unchanged. Then, the implications of expanded medical insurance coverage changes associated with the Affordable Care Act (ACA) were modeled. To reflect likely changes over the next decade in care use and delivery patterns, we modeled scenarios assuming growth in integrated care delivery models, assuming expanded use of retail clinics where care is often provided by nurse practitioners and physician assistants, and increased staffing of advanced practice nurses (APRNs). We also discuss the implications of the rapidly growing supply of physician assistants, as well as other trends that might affect demand such as growth in concierge practice, uncertainties around immigration reform, and changes in medicine and technology. Insufficient data are available currently to develop reliable projections of future physician demand related to these trends. Modeling scenarios will be developed in the future as data become available.